10 to 30 Per Cent of Dutch Livestock Farms Could Close by 2035
November 6, 2026 · Frisian News
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
New Dutch nitrogen-reduction proposals project shutting between 10 and 30 per cent of the country's livestock farms by 2035, according to Wageningen Social and Economic Research. Combined with natural attrition, the sector could shrink by up to 40 per cent, while the government's own environmental agency says the targets will still be missed.
Between 10 and 30 per cent of Dutch livestock farmers face closure under new government nitrogen-reduction proposals, Wageningen Social and Economic Research (WSER) found in a study published on November 4. On top of that, roughly 10 per cent will exit regardless of government policy, the same researchers found, meaning the sector could shrink by between 20 and 40 per cent by 2035. Dutch farming press puts that at around 3,000 holdings.
The Programme for Agriculture, Nature and Nitrogen, presented formally on November 3 by agriculture minister Jaimi van Essen, sets a target of cutting agricultural ammonia emissions by 42 to 46 per cent by 2035 against 2019 levels. Van Essen framed it as a turning point: "In June we chose the direction. Today we set the route." Emissions have already fallen 18 per cent since 2019.
The government has earmarked a €20 billion transition fund to soften the adjustment, including more than €9 billion for zones around vulnerable Natura 2000 nature reserves and €2.75 billion for a voluntary buyout scheme. Yet WSER calculates that at a 60 per cent subsidy rate the fund could support fewer than half of dairy farms with the required investments. Fewer than 5 per cent of farms already meet the government's future requirements, the Wageningen study found.
Mid-sized family farms face the steepest pressure. "Society is asking farmers through this policy: reduce your emissions," said Petra Berkhout, project leader at WSER. "That demands substantial modifications and investments on farms. Not every farmer can or wants to do that, even with support from the nitrogen fund, for instance due to where their holding is located." Larger industrial operations can absorb the cost of low-emission barn modifications more easily. Smaller farms are most likely to take the voluntary exit.
Nearly a quarter of dairy farms, more than 3,300, currently exceed the proposed cap of 2.6 livestock units per hectare, according to the Wageningen study. The cabinet is replacing the previous legal Critical Deposition Values with binding, sector-specific emission ceilings measured in kilotonnes for agriculture, industry and transport. A first measurement is due in early 2028.
Even if the entire package is delivered, the Netherlands' own environmental planning agency PBL finds it falls short. More than half of the country's protected nature sites will still breach nitrogen thresholds in 2035, PBL projects. Only 43 per cent of nitrogen-sensitive habitat will be below the critical deposition value by then, and the number of protected areas with no exceedance rises only from 10 to 14 out of 120. PBL described the package as demanding "an effort that borders on what is feasible by 2035." To close the remaining gap, PBL recommended an across-the-board cut of 5 to 10 per cent in farmers' livestock permits.
Van Essen rejected that idea, calling a blanket reduction "a no-go for the cabinet" and an "emergency brake" to be used only if 2035 targets are missed. The farmers' party BBB and the country's largest farm lobby, LTO, called the extra cut unacceptable. The WSER assessment found that national food security would not be compromised: the Netherlands produces between one-and-a-half and nine times more of every animal product than it uses domestically, except beef, meaning production losses would fall mainly on exports, not food supply.
Published November 6, 2026 · Frisian News