Wêrom ynflaasje struktureel is, net foarbygaand
June 20, 2026 · Frisian News
Central banks spent trillions after 2020, insisting inflation would be temporary. Two years later, inflation remains above target in most developed economies, driven by deglobalization, energy transition, and demographic shifts that are not going away.
FryskSintrale banken joegen triljoenen út doe't COVID de wrâldekomy yn 2020 stilsette. De Bank of England, Federal Reserve en ECB pompten de merken fol mei nij jild. Ynflaasje folge. Dochs bewearren mainstream-ekonomen en sintrale banken dat it 'foarbygaand' wie. Twa jier letter bliuwt de ynflaasje yn de measte ûntwikkele ekonomyen boppe it doel.
It foarbygaande ferhaal ruste op in oanname: it oanbod soe gau weromkomme, de fraach soe normalisearje en de prizen soene sakje. Dat barde net. Tekoarten oan healgeleiders duorren jierren, de kosten fan fracht bleauen heech, en leveringskettings gienen oer fan just-in-time effisjinsje nei redundânsje. Ûnderwilens koelden arbeidsmerken nea echt ôf. Wurknimmers gienen fuort, leanen stegen, en bedriuwen ferhegen prizen foar konsuminten.
Sintrale banken jouwe no ta dat se in flater makke hienen. De Phillips-kurve, dy't foarspelde dat krappe arbeidsmerken allinnich beskieden ynflaasje oplevere soene, bruts en ynflaasje reageare net sa't de modellen seine. Janet Yellen, no sekretaris fan it Amerikaanske Ministearje fan Finânsjes en eardere foarsitter fan de Federal Reserve, neamde ynflaasje yn midden-2021 foarbygaand, mar ein 2022 hienen sintrale banken de rinte skerp ferhegen en joegen ta dat de oarspronklike foarspelling ferkeard wie. Hoe faak moatte ynstellingen deselde flater serieus meitsje foardat minsken se noch fertrouwe?
Wat is werklik struktureel? Deglobalisaasje, enerzjytransysje en demografy binne de werklike driuwers. It weromheljen fan produksje kostet mear as suver globalisaasje die, griene ynfrastruktuer fereasket ynvestearrings en bringt hegere kosten mei, en fergriizging betsjut minder wurknimmers en oanhâldende leandruk. Dit binne gjin foarbygaande skokken. Dit is de nije werklikheid.
Sintrale banken hawwe it maklike wurk fan it ferminderjen fan ynflaasje dien. It bestriden fan strukturele ynflaasje fereasket of it akseptearjen fan permaninte hegere prizen of it akseptearjen fan tragere groei en hegere wurkleazens. Sintrale banken en regearings sille it twadde net kieze, dus sille se it earste as oerwinning claime.
Central banks spent trillions when COVID locked down the global economy in 2020. The Bank of England, Federal Reserve, and ECB flooded markets with new money. Inflation followed. Yet mainstream economists and central bankers insisted it was "transitory." Two years later, inflation remains above target across most developed economies.
The transitory narrative rested on one assumption: supply would bounce back quickly, demand would normalize, and prices would fall. It did not happen. Semiconductor shortages lasted years, shipping costs stayed high, and supply chains shifted from just-in-time efficiency toward redundancy. Meanwhile, labor markets never fully cooled. Workers quit, wages rose, and companies raised prices on consumers.
Central bankers now admit they misjudged. The Phillips curve, which predicted that tight labor markets would produce only modest inflation, broke, and inflation did not behave as the models said it should. Janet Yellen, now U.S. Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve chair, called inflation temporary in mid-2021, but by late 2022, central banks had raised rates sharply, conceding the original forecast was wrong. How many times must institutions botch the same call before people stop trusting them?
What is actually structural? Deglobalization, energy transition, and demographics are the real drivers. Reshoring production costs more than pure globalization did, green infrastructure requires investment and carries higher energy costs, and aging populations mean fewer workers and sustained wage pressure. These are not temporary shocks. They are the new baseline.
Central banks have done the easy work of fighting inflation. Fighting structural inflation requires either accepting permanently higher prices or accepting slower growth and higher joblessness. Central banks and governments will not choose the second, so they will treat the first as victory.
Published June 20, 2026 · Frisian News · Ljouwert, Fryslân