34.5% and rising: Europe heads for two workers per retiree by 2050
October 27, 2026 · Frisian News
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
The EU's old-age dependency ratio hit 34.5% in January 2025, up from 29.0% in 2015. Eurostat's baseline projections show it crossing 50% by 2050, leaving roughly two people of working age for every person over 65.
The EU's old-age dependency ratio stood at 34.5% on 1 January 2025, Eurostat data show, meaning just over three people of working age supported every person aged 65 or older. A decade ago that ratio was 29.0%. It has risen by 5.5 percentage points in ten years, and the direction does not change.
The arithmetic is direct: fewer workers per retiree means each worker carries a larger share. Eurostat notes that this may lead to an increased burden on those of working age to provide for the social expenditure required by the ageing population.
The EU's working-age population (20 to 64) stood at around 260 million in 2025, down from a peak of 270 million in 2010. Under Eurostat's EUROPOP2023 baseline scenario, compiled and published by nexalps demographics, it falls to 236 million by 2050, a loss of roughly 1 million workers per year. Italy faces the steepest national decline, losing 6 million workers by 2050, a fall of 17.5%.
By 2050, the old-age dependency ratio crosses 50%, according to the ECB's Economic Bulletin review of EUROPOP2023. The ECB puts the euro-area figure at around 51% in 2050, rising to 60% by 2100. That is roughly two workers for every retiree. The nexalps analysis of the same projections puts the EU-27 average at 50.4% by 2050, with Italy reaching 58% and Germany 51%.
The ECB acknowledges the direction but points to offsetting factors. Past pension reforms, including reduced benefit ratios and higher retirement ages, have "contained" pension expenditure increases, its Economic Bulletin states. Total age-related spending across the euro area is projected to rise by 2.4 percentage points of GDP between 2019 and 2050, from around 24.6% to over 27%, with most of the increase driven by healthcare and long-term care rather than pensions.
What that framing does not address is the compounding effect of a 19% fall in the working-age population between 2022 and 2100, a figure the ECB itself provides. Migration slows the process: strip out net migration entirely and, according to nexalps, the EU-27 falls from 450 million to 387 million by 2050, losing 63 million people. Eurostat analysis published by the European Data Portal confirms that even under the migration-inclusive baseline, the population still ages; migration changes the pace, not the direction.
Japan traced this path before Europe. Its 1995 age pyramid resembled the EU's today: median age 40, fertility at 1.42, 14% of the population over 65, according to nexalps historical comparisons. Thirty years on, Japan's median age is 50, fertility has fallen to 1.20, and 29% of its population is over 65. It ran robotics programmes, raised retirement ages, expanded women's workforce participation and eventually allowed limited immigration. The result, according to the same analysis, was three decades of GDP stagnation.
The strain within Europe is not uniform. Eurostat regional data published by the European Data Portal show some rural areas of central France, eastern Germany and northern Portugal already recording around 70 people aged 65 or older for every 100 of working age. Copenhagen sits at 17.8%.
Three workers per retiree in 2025, two by 2050: the pension promise was written for a ratio Europe is running out of.
Published October 27, 2026 · Frisian News