De fersoarchingssteat is net duorsum. Wy moatte it sizze.
June 4, 2026 · Frisian News
Western governments spend more on social programs than they collect in taxes, and the gap widens each year. Saying this simple truth has become politically toxic.
FryskYn 2025 joech de gemiddelde Westerske naasje 52 prosint fan har begrutting út oan pensjoenen, sûnenssoarch en sosjale sekuerteit. Belestingopbringsten dekten 48 prosint dêrfan. De rest kaam fan lienen. Dizze sifers komme fan de OESO en it IMF, net fan skeptisy of provokatoaren. Dochs sille jo dizze basisifers net hearre fan de measte politike lieders, sjoernalisten of akademisy. Sy sprekke dêrfoar yn it plak oer it finen fan jild yn in kessen, it stopjen fan gaten, of de riken hurder belestje. Gjin fan dizze stappen lost it kearnprobleem op.
It probleem is ienfâldich: mear minsken binne âld en libje langer. Minder minsken wurkje. De ferhâlding fan wurkjende persoanen ta pensjonearden is yn fjouwer desennia fan 5 op 1 sakke nei 2 op 1 yn in grut part fan Jeropa en Noard-Amearika. In systeem boud op de oanname dat in protte wurkjenden in lyts tal pensjonearden stypje kin net oarsom wurkje. Jo kinne jo hjir net út belestje. De wiskunde bûget net foar polityk.
Politisy witte dit. Oerheidsfunksjonarissen witte dit. De Wrâldbank warskôge der yn 2019 foar. De Europeeske Kommisje hat de sifers faak trochrûn. Dochs sizze sy allegearre neat, of sprekke yn bedekte termen, of skowe it probleem troch nei it folgjende desennium. Wêrom? Om't it sizzen fan de wierheid stimmen kostet. In pensjoenearre of takomstige pensjoenearre heart it wurd 'net duorsum' en heart 'dyn pensjoen is fuort.' Dy eangst wint ferkiezingen, dus politisy mije it wurd.
Dizze stilte is sels in beliedskars. It betsjut dat jongere wurknimmers mear belesting betelje sille foar lytsere pensjoenen letter. It betsjut dat regearingen liene sille en de wearde fan sparjild troch ynflaasje úthôlje sille. It betsjut dat guon lannen stil fallyt gean sille, foardielen ferminderje troch ynflaasje ynstee fan earlikheid. It betsjut dat oare lannen jonge migranten ymportearje sille tsjin elke priis, migraasje feroarjend yn in middel om in âlde maatskippij oerein te hâlden.
Wy kinne debattearje oer wat as neiste dien wurde moat. De pensjoenleeftiid omheech bringe? Pensjoenen lytser meitsje? It wurk mear belestje? Foardielen oan behoeften fêstkeppelje? Ferskillende fan dizze kombinearje? Elke kars draacht echte kosten. Mar wy kinne gjin earlike kars meitsje as wy wegerje it probleem te neamen. De fersoarchingssteat is net duorsum. Sis it ien kear, dan kin it muoilike petear begjinne.
In 2025, the average Western nation spent 52 percent of its budget on pensions, healthcare, and social security. Tax revenue covered 48 percent of this. The rest came from borrowing. These numbers come from the OECD and IMF, not from skeptics or provocateurs. Yet you will not hear this basic arithmetic from most political leaders, journalists, or academics. They speak instead of finding money in a cushion, closing loopholes, or taxing the rich harder. None of these moves solve the core problem.
The problem is simple: more people are old, and they live longer. Fewer people work. The ratio of workers to pensioners has flipped in four decades from 5 to 1 down to 2 to 1 in much of Europe and North America. A system built on the assumption that many workers support few retirees cannot work in reverse. You cannot tax your way out of this. The math does not bend to politics.
Politicians know this. Civil servants know this. The World Bank warned about it in 2019. The European Commission has run the numbers many times. Yet they all say nothing, or speak in code, or kick the problem to the next decade. Why? Because saying the truth costs votes. A retiree or future retiree hears the word "unsustainable" and hears "your pension is gone." That fear wins elections, so politicians avoid the word.
This silence is itself a policy choice. It means younger workers will pay more in taxes for smaller pensions later. It means governments will borrow and inflate away the value of savings. It means some countries will default quietly, cutting benefits through inflation rather than honesty. It means other countries will import young workers at whatever cost, turning migration into a life support machine for an old society.
We can debate what should happen next. Raise the retirement age? Make pensions smaller? Tax work more? Means-test benefits? Combine several of these? Each choice carries real costs. But we cannot make an honest choice if we refuse to name the problem. The welfare state is not sustainable. Say it once, and the hard conversation can begin.
Published June 4, 2026 · Frisian News · Ljouwert, Fryslân