24.6%: PSOE Hits Record Low After Second Fatal Rail Disaster Under Sánchez
November 3, 2026 · Frisian News
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Spain's ruling Socialist Workers' Party has fallen to 24.6 per cent in the first poll taken after the Urda crash, with projections putting it as low as 97 seats while the right-wing bloc heads for a comfortable majority.
24.6 per cent. That is where Spain's ruling Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) stands in the first poll conducted entirely after the Urda rail disaster. A Sigma Dos survey for El Mundo, with fieldwork on October 29 and 30 and published on November 1, put the party down 1.5 points in a single week and on course to win between 97 and 103 seats in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies. At the July 2023 election, running on 31.7 per cent, the PSOE took 121.
The crash on October 28 killed 69 people and left more than 100 injured when a Renfe AVE bound for Seville ran into the back of a stationary Iryo train near Urda in Toledo province. Sigma Dos surveyed 2,505 people in the two days that followed. The opposition Partido Popular (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, rose half a point to 31.1 per cent and would win between 133 and 139 seats. The PP's lead over the Socialists has widened to 6.5 points.
Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, slipped 0.6 points to 19.3 per cent but would still take between 63 and 69 seats, roughly double the 33 it secured in 2023. Together, PP and Vox would command at least 196 seats in the lower house, comfortably above the 176 needed for an absolute majority.
Transport Minister Óscar Puente ruled out resigning and blamed an inexplicable decision made at the control centre of Adif, the state-owned infrastructure manager. He has insisted Spain's railway system is "safe and reliable." Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the disaster "unacceptable" and promised to strengthen safety measures.
Domestic railway spending remains 66.7 per cent below its 2009 peak, according to research published in March by the BBVA Foundation and the Valencian Institute of Economic Research (Ivie). Urda was the second fatal high-speed crash on the Madrid-Andalusia corridor this year; the Adamuz collision in January killed 46 people, according to The Guardian. Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Carlos III University of Madrid, told The Guardian the accident "draws attention to the state of railway infrastructure, suggesting that the problem is structural." He added that the government, in power since 2018, cannot credibly blame austerity cuts made by its PP predecessor.
Two further polls published on November 2 confirmed the direction. NC Report for La Razón put the Socialists at 25.6 per cent with 100 to 102 seats; Target Point for El Debate gave them 25.5 per cent. Before the crash, several surveys had projected the PSOE as high as 113 seats, with the gap to the PP narrowing. On Polymarket, as of November 2, Feijóo stood at 84 per cent to become the next prime minister, with Sánchez at 11.6 per cent.
The rest of the left is collapsing alongside the PSOE. The Frente Amplio alliance is projected to take just 11 to 14 seats, against the 31 won by Sumar in 2023. Podemos, at 1.9 per cent, risks returning no seats at all.
Sánchez called the snap election on October 5 after Congress rejected two of his housing decrees. Spaniards vote on November 29.
Published November 3, 2026 · Frisian News